Summary

In August 2024 the declared property cost for HS2 phase 1 was £4.173bn, rising £0.31bn (£310mn) since July 2023. In the same period HS2 have only paid out c£0.2bn (£200mn), meaning that the cost rise is outstripping the payments by c£100mn / year.

In Mar 2023, HS2 Ltd told the Commons PAC that it had spent £3.6bn to acquire 95% of phase 1 property, which infers that it would acquire 100% of the phase 1 land for £3.79bn & yet in June 2024 it was at £4.123bn .
https://committees.parliament.uk/oralevidence/13838/pdf/

This was HS2 Ltd being very economical with the truth as in 'acquiring' in HS2 terms with respect to a Compulsory Purchase Order (CPO) land, means that HS2 Ltd / DfT have taken possession and paid 95% of the 'HS2 Ltd estimate' of the lands worth and the full settlement had not been agreed.

The estimated cost for phase 1 property as of July 2024 is £4.173bn, & with the rise from June 2023 being £260mn, would seem to make Andrew Bruce's 2016 rejected phase 1 property estimate of £4.8bn to be on the money. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49482701 

In 2016 HS2 whistleblower Andrew Bruce was told "If we pay people what the land is worth, we will run out of budget very quickly"
BBC Panorama 26'30".

Even if the costs stayed stable at the present rate of settlement it would take until 2054 for the phase 1 property compensation to be complete.

The HS2 Compulsory Purchase Order scheme has been in place since Jan 2017, & in 7 years HS2 Ltd have only fully settled on 308 claims out of total of 1735 claims on phase 1, at a cost of £1.58bn of the current £2.41bn paid out, leaving £1.78bn and rising in delayed / disputed / future claims. 

At the current rate of settlement (ignoring future new claims estimated at 300 / year), the  final settlements wont happen until 2054.


 

Details

Phase 1 is broken up into South (Euston to Wendover), Central (Wendover to Southam) & North (Southam to Birmingham / Lichfield).

The South section has a total of 338 claims (20%) & only 168 (49%) of them have been fully settled.

The Central section has a total of 756 claims (44%) & 18 (2%) of them have been fully settled.

The North section has a total of 641 claims (36%) & 125 (20%) of them have been fully settled.

The Central section, which is mainly made up farms & rural businesses is nearly being ignored, with only 2 settlements from July 2023 to Aug 2024, compared to 35 in the North & 19 in the South over the same period.

A senior RICS surveyor dealing with over 30 properties in the Central section is at a loss on how to speed up resolution for his clients as the HS2 Property Team are taking up to 6 months to reply to basic correspondence.